11/7/2008
2008 Election Update and Analysis
OBAMA-BIDEN PRESIDENCY
Taken as a whole, the Obama win of the presidential race and the Democratic gains in the House and Senate coupled with the change-over in congressional power from the last election in 2006 has the Democratic party in majority control of the federal government. However, with the recent financial instability, looming recession, ongoing overseas conflicts and other tests facing the nation, the challenges for the President-elect and his team are daunting. The first order of business for President-Elect Obama is organizing and selecting his transition team, deciding whether and how to engage a lame-duck session of Congress scheduled for next week, beginning selection of his White House Staff and Cabinet, and mapping out his strategy for the first weeks, months and years of his Presidency.
Obama has a reasonable claim to a mandate from the people as Americans voted in record numbers this year. From incomplete results, it appears that 136.6 million Americans will have voted for president in this election with a 64.1 percent voter turnout rate, the highest since the beginning of the 1900s. However, it is arguable whether the congressional elections constitute a "landslide" for the Democrats, considering the fact that they did not achieve the margin of victory in either chamber of Congress that many predicted.
AGENDA
High on the list of options after Obama takes office in January will be an expansion of the State Children's Health Insurance Program to make healthcare available to more children in low-income families, eliminating restrictions on federal funding for stem cell research, and overturning a recent Supreme Court decision on equal-pay protections for women. Various budget models and ideas may be offered to promote a major infrastructure package that could include not just the building of roads and bridges but new schools, community health centers, and investment in various new energy options. The strategy behind such a legislative package would be to stimulate the economy and at the same time give the new President a quick, clear accomplishment on an issue that most voters support.
Lame-Duck Session and Beyond: The lame-duck session of Congress in the middle of this month will test the political capabilities for passage of economic stimulus legislation beyond unemployment benefits and food stamps. The President is currently opposed to such legislation. It will be an uphill fight to pass legislation with so many out-going members of the opposite party. The real battle will come when the House and Senate take up an omnibus appropriations bill anticipated in late January or early February shortly after Obama takes office. Whether the Obama Administration asserts itself into the remaining work needed to be done on the FY 2009 spending bills remains to be seen. While the details of the FY 2010 budget offered by the new President will be later than usual, a basic outline of the incoming President’s priorities will be sent to Congress in early February.
The new administration will also need to address how to continue in Iraq and Afghanistan, including what could be an additional $100 billion for military operations overseas. In the same period, if not this year, the U.S. Treasury will need to tap into the second $350 billion authorization of its financial rescue plan — forcing a debate in Congress on its direction. But the most telling decision for the incoming President could be where he comes down in choosing between two of his signature issues: energy policy and health care reform.
HOUSE IMPACT
As of now, it appears Democrats will gain at least 20 seats in the House of Representatives, not the upper 20s they were expecting. While there are still a number of outstanding races to be settled, the current breakdown stands at 254 Democrats, 173 Republicans and eight seats undecided. This will give Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi an overwhelming majority to work with and provide Obama a secure base from which to direct his legislative agenda. This gain comes after Democrats’ 30-seat pick-up in 2006, representing the first time in 75 years that Democrats have seen such large gains in back-to-back cycles. Again, while the gains were significant, they were not the tidal wave that was predicted as the efforts of the Republican Presidential nominee McCain and the party helped shore up a number of embattled Republican incumbents in many Mid-West and Southern "red" states.
SENATE IMPACT
With three races still too close to call, it is clear that Democrats have picked up a number of seats in the Senate and while they have increased their majority in that chamber as well, they have fallen short of their filibuster-proof goal of 60 votes. It was clear that even the 60-member/vote threshold would have presented filibuster challenges as a number of new Senators are relatively conservative on select issues. In addition, the Senate has one clear recalcitrant member of the caucus with Sen. Lieberman (Independent-CT) who will likely chart his own course on defense, homeland security and foreign affairs issues. Regardless of his newly superior numbers, Senate Majority Leader Reid is going to have his work cut out for him in herding the Democrats on issue after issue in the new Congress.
IMPACT ON HEALTH SYSTEM REFORM
Whatever political and legislative game plan is chosen for health system reform, timing is crucial. Many Democrats would argue that the new president will be making a grave mistake if he does not strike early in his term on healthcare reform issues. Others believe a more realistic timeline for health reform will be the second half of his first term.
Also, before the end of 2009, Congress will again revisit the physician payment structure for Medicare. Many expect that reform to the Medicare payment system will be included in, and perhaps even a starting point for, overall health system reform. Although it is not expected that Medicare coverage will be expanded in a material way, Democrats in Congress are considering expanding income eligibility for Medicaid and Obama, too, supports the expansion of Medicaid to cover more of the uninsured, especially children.
As more details emerge, NAAOP will continue to relay developments, especially as those developments impact the field of orthotics and prosthetics.
